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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-21T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28663/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the E/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME overlaps partially with the faint CME seen to the E/SE starting at 2024-01-20T23:12Z. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption and associated flaring seen in AR13559. The filament sat along the lower boundary of this active region, stretching from ~N20E32 to N25E50 and is centered around N20E41. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of the CME seen at 2024-01-20T09:24Z and this CME beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-23T20:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note: 
predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-01-23T20:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50%
Kp Range: 3-5
Lead Time: 14.18 hour(s)
Difference: -27.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2024-01-22T01:50Z
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